{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093001",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen landing at 3.75 to 4 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen 3.75-4.0%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound (next hike cycle)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26OCT-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.34,
    "volume_24h_usd": 22175.38,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 98% above 3.75% but only 34% above 4.0%, implying one more hike is the consensus.",
    "New York Fed President John Williams called for one more late-2026 hike; the distribution is consistent with that single-hike view, not a more aggressive path.",
    "Volume surged 53x day over day on this ladder, signaling sharply rising market attention following Williams' public remarks.",
    "Beyond 4.0%, the ladder collapses to just 2% probability, suggesting markets firmly reject a scenario of multiple additional hikes from here."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us-federal-reserves-williams-sees-one-more-interest-rate-hike-in-late-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "New York Fed President John Williams signaled one more rate hike in late 2026, saying there is no urgency to act after the most recent increase.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us-federal-reserves-williams-sees-one-more-interest-rate-hike-in-late-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves against the official federal funds rate target; the sharp break above 4.0% makes the single-hike read the dominant pricing outcome."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: US Federal Reserve’s Williams sees one more interest rate hike in late",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us-federal-reserves-williams-sees-one-more-interest-rate-hike-in-late-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}