{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093004",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-ladder-99-28-2026-09-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Longer-horizon Fed funds upper bound holds well below 4 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen 3.75-4.0%: ladder 99%/28%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound (later 2026 meeting)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26OCT-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.28,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2850.47,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices 99% above 3.75% but only 28% above 4.0%, placing the modal range firmly at 3.75-4.0% for a later 2026 meeting.",
    "New York Fed President John Williams signaled one more hike, but the market is fading full pricing of a move above 4.0%, assigning only 28% odds.",
    "The steep cliff from 99% to 28% at the 4.0% strike is the clearest single read: the market hears Williams but does not fully believe the hike clears 4.0%.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate decision; settlement source not further specified in the candidate data."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us-federal-reserves-williams-sees-one-more-interest-rate-hike-in-late-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T07:47:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "New York Fed President John Williams said there is one more rate hike likely in late 2026 but no urgency to act immediately.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us-federal-reserves-williams-sees-one-more-interest-rate-hike-in-late-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder data carried via ClearMarket marks; Williams's hawkish signal is being partially faded by the distribution's sharp drop at the 4.0% strike."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: US Federal Reserve’s Williams sees one more interest rate hike in late",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us-federal-reserves-williams-sees-one-more-interest-rate-hike-in-late-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T07:47:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-ladder-99-28-2026-09-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-ladder-99-28-2026-09-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}