{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092301",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-0-4-25-kalshi-70-2026-09-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds above 4 percent prices in amid hike talk",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen 4.0-4.25%: Kalshi 70%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-24",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound (multi-meeting ladder)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26OCT-T4.25",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.02,
    "volume_24h_usd": 66.71,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts ~70% on the federal funds upper bound clearing 4.00%, but collapses to 2% above 4.25%, pinning the implied range at 4.00-4.25%.",
    "Reuters reports Fed officials view inflation and a strengthening economy as grounds for further tightening; the Kalshi distribution is broadly consistent with one more hike, not two.",
    "Trading volume on this Kalshi ladder surged 327x day-over-day, signaling fresh capital flowing into the rate-path bet as the news cycle intensified.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) implies a similar 4.25-4.50% peak, with only 7% above 4.50%, confirming the market sees limited probability of aggressive multi-hike follow-through."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thomson Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://my957.com/2026/09/23/feds-barr-says-further-rate-hikes-will-likely-be-needed/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T07:47:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Multiple Fed officials and mounting inflation data are pushing the Federal Reserve toward additional rate hikes ahead of midterm elections.",
      "publisher": "Thomson Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://my957.com/2026/09/23/feds-barr-says-further-rate-hikes-will-likely-be-needed/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder; the 327x volume surge is a clear signal of elevated market attention, though current pricing stops well short of pricing in a sustained tightening cycle."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thomson Reuters: Inflation pressures raise prospect of Fed rate hike on eve of election",
      "url": "https://my957.com/2026/09/23/feds-barr-says-further-rate-hikes-will-likely-be-needed/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T07:47:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-0-4-25-kalshi-70-2026-09-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-0-4-25-kalshi-70-2026-09-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}