{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100601",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-0-4-25-kalshi-78-2026-10-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds above 4 percent stays near full pricing post-hike collapse",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen 4.0-4.25%: Kalshi 78%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound following next meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 151.41,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 78% above 4.0%, only 19% above 4.25%.",
    "October hike odds fell from 70% to 25% per fed funds futures after Jefferson and Williams signaled pause; Kalshi distribution is consistent with one more hike but not imminent.",
    "The companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) prices 99% above 3.75% but only 18% above 4.0%, implying an earlier meeting already priced a hold near 4.0%.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; any dissent or hawkish surprise at the Oct. 27-28 meeting would shift the 4.25% strike sharply."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Macro, Rates Desk",
          "source_url": "https://gokhshtein.com/news/2026-10-06-october-hike-odds-collapse-to-25-as-fed-deputies-show-pause",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "October Fed hike odds collapsed from 70% to 25% after Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams signaled a pause.",
      "publisher": "The Macro, Rates Desk",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://gokhshtein.com/news/2026-10-06-october-hike-odds-collapse-to-25-as-fed-deputies-show-pause"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder pricing is consistent with a one-and-done posture: the market agrees with the pause signal from Fed officials but has not fully priced out a final hike."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Macro, Rates Desk: October Hike Odds Fall to 25% After Fed Deputies Show Pause | Gokhshte",
      "url": "https://gokhshtein.com/news/2026-10-06-october-hike-odds-collapse-to-25-as-fed-deputies-show-pause",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-0-4-25-kalshi-78-2026-10-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-0-4-25-kalshi-78-2026-10-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}