{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060305",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-06-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Funds rate staying at 3.50-3.75 percent commands pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 34%",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen at 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound (next decision)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.34,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-16T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 91% above 3.50% but only 34% above 3.75%.",
    "Hammack's hike signal is consistent with the hawkish end of the distribution, but markets still put only 15% on 4.00% or higher.",
    "Beige Book flagging Middle East energy-driven inflation and labor stagnation adds upside risk but markets are not yet pricing a full move above 3.75%.",
    "Companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-85LZKDJL71) prices 97% above 3.50% but only 1% above 3.75%, showing the near-term EFFR distribution is even more tightly capped."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Anupam Nagar",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/feds-hammack-signals-rate-hike-may-be-needed-soon-as-inflation-risks-intensify/articleshow/131476088.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signaled a rate hike may be needed soon as inflation risks intensify.",
      "publisher": "Anupam Nagar",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/feds-hammack-signals-rate-hike-may-be-needed-soon-as-inflation-risks-intensify/articleshow/131476088.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's distribution places peak probability at 3.50-3.75%, fading Hammack's hike rhetoric at higher levels."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Anupam Nagar: Fed's Hammack signals rate hike may be needed soon as inflation risks",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/feds-hammack-signals-rate-hike-may-be-needed-soon-as-inflation-risks-intensify/articleshow/131476088.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-06-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-06-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}