{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081002",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-08-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Near-term Fed cut odds stay heavily favored below 3.75%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen at 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound (near-term meeting)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.42,
    "volume_24h_usd": 16509.41,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the near-term Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, with 98% above 3.50% but only 42% above 3.75%.",
    "The 23,000 July payroll loss is consistent with the market's strong pricing for cuts; the 3.75% rung at 42% shows real uncertainty about how far and fast cuts go.",
    "The longer-horizon ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) implies the upper bound drifts higher to the 3.75-4.0% zone over subsequent meetings, suggesting a step-down cut path.",
    "Resolves via the Fed's official post-meeting announcement for the relevant decision date; a surprise hold would collapse the above-3.75% pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "111things.com",
          "source_url": "https://111things.com/national/weak-july-jobs-report-complicates-the-federal-reserves-path-on-interest-rates/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "July payrolls fell 23,000, a sharp deterioration that complicates the Federal Reserve's rate path and fuels rate-cut speculation.",
      "publisher": "111things.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://111things.com/national/weak-july-jobs-report-complicates-the-federal-reserves-path-on-interest-rates/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi is the sole priced venue on this ladder; the near-term distribution shows sharply tighter consensus than the longer-dated equivalent."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "111things.com: Weak July Jobs Report Complicates the Federal Reserve’s Path on Intere",
      "url": "https://111things.com/national/weak-july-jobs-report-complicates-the-federal-reserves-path-on-interest-rates/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-08-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-08-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}