{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072403",
  "record_slug": "fed-hike-above-4-0-after-july-kalshi-12-2026-07-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Rate hike odds stay short of one-in-two despite historic jobs data",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed hike above 4.0% after July: Kalshi 12%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "July 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.12,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4.32,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices only 12% probability the Fed funds upper bound exceeds 4.0% after the July meeting.",
    "Headlines claim hike odds are past one-in-three, but the Kalshi distribution puts a hike above 4.0% at just 12%, materially below that framing.",
    "Volume on this Kalshi ladder rose 396x day-over-day, confirming the jobs print is drawing heavy fresh attention even as outright hike pricing remains a minority view.",
    "The 3.75% strike at 65% suggests markets see the most likely outcome as a hold at current levels, not a hike."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Scott McCain  \n\nPublished: Jul 24 2026, 7:40 AM EDT",
          "source_url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321475/20260724/jobless-claims-fall-57-year-low-pushing-fed-rate-hike-odds-past-one-three.htm",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Jobless claims hitting a 57-year low pushed headlines declaring Fed rate-hike odds past one-in-three, framing historically strong labor data as an inflation risk.",
      "publisher": "Scott McCain  \n\nPublished: Jul 24 2026, 7:40 AM EDT",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321475/20260724/jobless-claims-fall-57-year-low-pushing-fed-rate-hike-odds-past-one-three.htm"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder, with a massive volume spike, shows the market is fading the one-in-three hike narrative: above-4.0% probability sits at just 12%."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Scott McCain  \n\nPublished: Jul 24 2026, 7:40 AM EDT: Jobless Claims Fall to 57-Year Low, Pushing Fed Rate-Hike Odds Past On",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321475/20260724/jobless-claims-fall-57-year-low-pushing-fed-rate-hike-odds-past-one-three.htm",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-above-4-0-after-july-kalshi-12-2026-07-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-above-4-0-after-july-kalshi-12-2026-07-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}