{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061103",
  "record_slug": "fed-hike-at-least-once-in-2026-polymarket-40-2026-06-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-11T18:11:01.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed rate hike in 2026 holds below coin-flip despite hawkish signals",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 40%",
  "headline": "Fed hike at least once in 2026: Polymarket 40%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at least once in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x80b3af88cb991980e8da1ce86b9794a0957f96ec98c29319dd7ba65e9744d82b",
    "question_raw": "Fed rate hike in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.4,
    "volume_24h_usd": 72215.40967299999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve (consensus fallback)",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 at 40%, below even odds despite Warsh's hawkish framing.",
    "Warsh's hike-before-cut posture is not fully endorsed by markets, which still price a hike as the minority outcome.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract prices just 7% on a hike larger than 25 basis points in a single meeting, suggesting any move would be measured.",
    "The Kalshi contract on a Fed cut before 2027 sits at 28%, meaning markets price neither a hike nor a cut as highly likely this year."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Washington Post",
          "source_url": "https://finance-commerce.com/2026/06/fed-chair-warsh-may-raise-rates-before-cutting/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Washington Post reported new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may raise rates before cutting them, given surging inflation.",
      "publisher": "The Washington Post",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T18:11:01.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://finance-commerce.com/2026/06/fed-chair-warsh-may-raise-rates-before-cutting/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via Federal Reserve decision records; the consensus fallback applies if primary source is unavailable."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Washington Post: Fed’s Warsh may raise rates before cutting them",
      "url": "https://finance-commerce.com/2026/06/fed-chair-warsh-may-raise-rates-before-cutting/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T18:11:01.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-at-least-once-in-2026-polymarket-40-2026-06-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-at-least-once-in-2026-polymarket-40-2026-06-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}