{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071603",
  "record_slug": "fed-hikes-benchmark-rate-in-2026-polymarket-51-2026-07-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T09:21:50.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed rate hike in 2026 consensus fractures near coin-flip",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 51%",
  "headline": "Fed hikes benchmark rate in 2026: Polymarket 51%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x80b3af88cb991980e8da1ce86b9794a0957f96ec98c29319dd7ba65e9744d82b",
    "question_raw": "Fed rate hike in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.51,
    "volume_24h_usd": 20444.483323,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 51% chance the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate in 2026.",
    "Rising Treasury yields driven by geopolitical risk premium and oil price pressure are consistent with a market nearly split on Fed action.",
    "Kalshi separately prices only 8% on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year, reinforcing that dovish pivot odds are low.",
    "A separate Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range, anchoring the near-term policy path well below current market rates."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Sarah Min,Joseph Wilkins",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/16/us-treasury-yields-wall-street-inflation-employment-data.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T17:20:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Treasury yields rose as oil prices climbed on mounting US-Iran tensions, with the 10-year yield moving above 4.57%.",
      "publisher": "Sarah Min,Joseph Wilkins",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T09:21:50.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/16/us-treasury-yields-wall-street-inflation-employment-data.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; definition of 'raise' relative to current effective funds rate is the key settlement question."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Sarah Min,Joseph Wilkins: Treasury yields rise, as oil resumes climb on mounting U.S.-Iran tensi",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/16/us-treasury-yields-wall-street-inflation-employment-data.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T09:21:50.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T17:20:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hikes-benchmark-rate-in-2026-polymarket-51-2026-07-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hikes-benchmark-rate-in-2026-polymarket-51-2026-07-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}