{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061702",
  "record_slug": "fed-hold-with-dissent-at-june-fomc-kalshi-67-2026-06-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Dissent at Warsh debut FOMC anchors at two-thirds odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 67%",
  "headline": "Fed hold with dissent at June FOMC: Kalshi 67%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MZGHWX20T0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfedcombo-26jun",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve hold rates at 4.25%-4.50% with at least one dissent at its June 2026 meeting?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCOMBO-26JUN-0-0",
    "question_raw": "Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.67,
    "volume_24h_usd": 238.04,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-17T19:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market prices a 67% chance the Fed holds at 4.25%-4.50% with at least one dissent at the June FOMC.",
    "Note: the Kalshi dissent contract references a 4.25%-4.50% target range, which conflicts with the Kalshi ladder showing current upper bound at 3.50-3.75%; treat this contract's rate-level framing as potentially misaligned with the live rate level.",
    "Reuters sourcing that some members may lean hawkish is consistent with elevated dissent odds; the 67% price reflects genuine uncertainty about internal Fed dynamics under Warsh.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics; resolution source appears atypical for a Fed decision outcome, monitor for contract-specific settlement rules."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "investing.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/fomc-meeting-preview-will-warsh-kill-the-rate-cut-trade-for-good-200682293",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Reuters reports some FOMC members may pencil in a rate hike, while Chair Kevin Warsh's own dot remains uncertain heading into the June meeting.",
      "publisher": "investing.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/fomc-meeting-preview-will-warsh-kill-the-rate-cut-trade-for-good-200682293"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices this at 67%; the BLS resolution source is unusual for a Fed-meeting contract and warrants attention on settlement mechanics."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "investing.com: FOMC Meeting Preview: Will Warsh Kill the Rate Cut Trade for Good?",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/fomc-meeting-preview-will-warsh-kill-the-rate-cut-trade-for-good-200682293",
      "published_at": "2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hold-with-dissent-at-june-fomc-kalshi-67-2026-06-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hold-with-dissent-at-june-fomc-kalshi-67-2026-06-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}