{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061204",
  "record_slug": "fed-holds-at-4-25-4-50-with-dissent-at-june-kalshi-67-2026-06-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed hold with dissent at June meeting commands majority pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 67%",
  "headline": "Fed holds at 4.25-4.50% with dissent at June: Kalshi 67%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MZGHWX20T0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfedcombo-26jun",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve hold rates at 4.25%-4.50% with at least one dissent at its June 2026 meeting?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCOMBO-26JUN-0-0",
    "question_raw": "Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.67,
    "volume_24h_usd": 238.04,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-17T19:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Fed hold at 4.25-4.50% with at least one dissent at the June meeting at 67%.",
    "With inflation at multi-year highs and Warsh signaled as hawkish, a dissent appears consensus-expected even as the hold dominates.",
    "The Kalshi ladder for the June Fed funds upper bound shows 95% probability above 3.50% but only 36% above 3.75%, anchoring the likely outcome at 3.50-3.75% for a later meeting.",
    "Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics entry for the meeting outcome; dissent requires at least one FOMC member to vote against the hold."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/features/inflationary-pressures-rise-in-us-as-new-fed-chair-prepares-for-1st-meeting/3964939",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Rising inflationary pressures ahead of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting fueled debate over the rate path.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/features/inflationary-pressures-rise-in-us-as-new-fed-chair-prepares-for-1st-meeting/3964939"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics records; the 67% reflects hawkish dissent risk as near-consensus even without a hike."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: Inflationary pressures rise in US as new Fed chair prepares for 1st me",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/features/inflationary-pressures-rise-in-us-as-new-fed-chair-prepares-for-1st-meeting/3964939",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-holds-at-4-25-4-50-with-dissent-at-june-kalshi-67-2026-06-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-holds-at-4-25-4-50-with-dissent-at-june-kalshi-67-2026-06-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}