{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072403",
  "record_slug": "fed-july-cut-with-dissent-kalshi-65-2026-07-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed July rate cut with dissent stays favored at 65 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 65%",
  "headline": "Fed July cut with dissent: Kalshi 65%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P6QJP9BW02",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfedcombo-26jul",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve in July 2026 cut rates and have at least one dissent?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCOMBO-26JUL-0-T0",
    "question_raw": "Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.65,
    "volume_24h_usd": 801.01,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-29T17:55:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract puts 65% odds on the Fed cutting rates at the July 2026 meeting with at least one dissent, per Bureau of Labor Statistics resolution.",
    "Services-led growth at a 2.3% pace is consistent with a cut occurring but a dissent being likely, as hawkish members could object to easing into an accelerating economy.",
    "The manufacturing contraction gives dovish members cover to cut, explaining why a cut remains the base case despite strong headline activity.",
    "Companion ladder CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3 puts only 48% odds on the upper bound exceeding 4.0% after the meeting, so the dominant scenario remains a cut to or hold near current levels, not a hike."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Roger Satterfield  \n\nPublished: Jul 24 2026, 10:34 AM EDT",
          "source_url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321476/20260724/services-surge-pushes-us-growth-23-pace-factories-enter-contraction.htm",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US private-sector activity accelerated to its fastest quarterly pace in months, driven by a services surge, even as manufacturing entered contraction ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC decision.",
      "publisher": "Roger Satterfield  \n\nPublished: Jul 24 2026, 10:34 AM EDT",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321476/20260724/services-surge-pushes-us-growth-23-pace-factories-enter-contraction.htm"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 65% resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics and captures both the rate decision and the dissent, making it a compound binary sensitive to committee dynamics."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Roger Satterfield  \n\nPublished: Jul 24 2026, 10:34 AM EDT: Services Surge Pushes US Growth to 2.3% Pace as Factories Enter Contra",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321476/20260724/services-surge-pushes-us-growth-23-pace-factories-enter-contraction.htm",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-july-cut-with-dissent-kalshi-65-2026-07-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-july-cut-with-dissent-kalshi-65-2026-07-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}