{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090403",
  "record_slug": "fed-raises-rates-by-2028-kalshi-74-2026-09-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed rate hike by 2028 stays favored after jobs beat",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 74%",
  "headline": "Fed raises rates by 2028: Kalshi 74%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-06",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42",
  "target_event_slug": "fedhike",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? (multi-deadline series, 2026-2028)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "FEDHIKE-26DEC31",
    "question_raw": "Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.74,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2772.47,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 74% on the Fed raising interest rates at some point across its multi-deadline 2026-2028 series.",
    "The blowout August jobs print is consistent with the 74% pricing, but markets are not at near-certainty, suggesting inflation data still dominates the calculus.",
    "Federal Reserve officials cited by American Banker see the jobs report as supportive but not sufficient alone to guarantee a September hike.",
    "Companion rate-level ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) puts only 2% on the fed funds upper bound exceeding 4.0%, implying the hike expected is modest if it occurs."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "americanbanker.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/labor-market-rebounds-but-all-eyes-are-on-inflation-for-fed",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-06T11:54:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "August payrolls surging to 162,000 bolstered the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike, with inflation now the swing factor for the September meeting.",
      "publisher": "americanbanker.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/labor-market-rebounds-but-all-eyes-are-on-inflation-for-fed"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decisions across the 2026-2028 window; multi-deadline structure limits resolution precision."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "americanbanker.com: Labor market rebounds, but all eyes are on inflation for Fed | America",
      "url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/labor-market-rebounds-but-all-eyes-are-on-inflation-for-fed",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-06T11:54:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-raises-rates-by-2028-kalshi-74-2026-09-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-raises-rates-by-2028-kalshi-74-2026-09-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}