{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090304",
  "record_slug": "fed-raises-rates-in-2026-polymarket-71-2026-09-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed hike in 2026 builds toward 75% on strong jobs data",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 71%",
  "headline": "Fed raises rates in 2026: Polymarket 71%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-06",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x80b3af88cb991980e8da1ce86b9794a0957f96ec98c29319dd7ba65e9744d82b",
    "question_raw": "Fed rate hike in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.71,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4861.095019,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 71% on the Fed raising its benchmark rate at some point in 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Waller's pre-jobs-report hedging is at mild odds with the 71% market reading, suggesting prediction markets are pricing the data more than the rhetoric.",
    "Rate-level ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) puts only 2% on the fed funds upper bound exceeding 4.0%, implying markets expect a hike but a shallow one.",
    "Kalshi's multi-deadline series (CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42) is at 74%, nearly matching Polymarket's 71%, a tight cross-venue alignment with no meaningful gap to exploit."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER Associated Press Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://www.local10.com/business/2026/09/03/will-federal-reserve-hike-rates-later-this-month-waller-muddies-the-outlook/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-06T11:54:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled ambiguity on a September rate hike even before the August payroll beat, with inflation data now the key remaining hurdle.",
      "publisher": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER Associated Press Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.local10.com/business/2026/09/03/will-federal-reserve-hike-rates-later-this-month-waller-muddies-the-outlook/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on any Fed rate increase in calendar 2026; cross-venue alignment with Kalshi at 74% is unusually tight."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER Associated Press Associated Press: Will Federal Reserve hike rates later this month? Waller muddies the o",
      "url": "https://www.local10.com/business/2026/09/03/will-federal-reserve-hike-rates-later-this-month-waller-muddies-the-outlook/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-06T11:54:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-raises-rates-in-2026-polymarket-71-2026-09-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-raises-rates-in-2026-polymarket-71-2026-09-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}