{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062704",
  "record_slug": "fed-rate-cut-before-2027-kalshi-24-2026-06-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-27T18:05:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed cut before 2027 consensus fractures at low probability",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 24%",
  "headline": "Fed rate cut before 2027: Kalshi 24%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-X2TT2M9D02",
  "target_event_slug": "kxratecut-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRATECUT-26DEC31",
    "question_raw": "Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.235,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1233.7,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Fed cut before 2027 at 24%, a low-conviction read despite the full calendar year remaining.",
    "Removal of the dovish inflation phrase signals tighter guidance from the Fed, and the market is largely consistent -- not pricing aggressive cuts.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on a cut larger than 25 basis points in a single meeting sits at just 7%, reinforcing shallow-cut-only expectations.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official announcement; any inter-meeting cut would also qualify, though historically rare."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Leo Sun",
          "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/27/the-fed-removed-this-1-key-phrase-from-the-inflati/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T12:28:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh removed a key inflation phrase at the June FOMC meeting, signaling a higher-for-longer posture.",
      "publisher": "Leo Sun",
      "published_at": "2026-06-27T18:05:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/27/the-fed-removed-this-1-key-phrase-from-the-inflati/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 24% on any cut before 2027 reflects markets broadly accepting the Fed's hawkish pivot under Warsh."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Leo Sun: The Fed Removed This 1 Key Phrase From the Inflation Report. What That",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/27/the-fed-removed-this-1-key-phrase-from-the-inflati/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-27T18:05:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T12:28:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-cut-before-2027-kalshi-24-2026-06-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-cut-before-2027-kalshi-24-2026-06-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}