{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072604",
  "record_slug": "fed-rate-decision-apr-jul-window-polymarket-77-2026-07-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed action between April and July prices in heavily",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 77%",
  "headline": "Fed rate decision Apr-Jul window: Polymarket 77%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C0ZG1HDJQ1",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-decisions-apr-jul",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make decisions regarding interest rates between April and July?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x647fe897e10ecde7f5bf00b420cd00b76634b7de8830ae683136c9d3102c5532",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?",
    "current_price": 0.774,
    "volume_24h_usd": 8185.086228000001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 77% probability the Fed makes a rate decision in the April-to-July window; trading volume on this contract surged 3,484% day over day.",
    "The volume spike, nearly 35 times normal, signals the July FOMC meeting is drawing significant fresh attention to this contract.",
    "At 77%, the contract is consistent with a hold-now-hike-soon narrative rather than a clean pass on the window entirely.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the April-July window closes at the end of the July 29 meeting, making this contract a near-term binary event."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mary Helen Gillespie      Sun, 26 July 2026 at 12:13 pm GMT-7   6 min read",
          "source_url": "https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/rising-inflation-turns-july-fed-191300692.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Rising inflation has turned the July Fed meeting into a live rate-hike debate, with the July 28-29 FOMC meeting now a focal point for traders and economists.",
      "publisher": "Mary Helen Gillespie      Sun, 26 July 2026 at 12:13 pm GMT-7   6 min read",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/rising-inflation-turns-july-fed-191300692.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 35x volume surge on this contract is the clearest signal of fresh market engagement around the July FOMC."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mary Helen Gillespie      Sun, 26 July 2026 at 12:13 pm GMT-7   6 min read: Rising inflation turns July Fed meeting into rate-hike showdown",
      "url": "https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/rising-inflation-turns-july-fed-191300692.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-decision-apr-jul-window-polymarket-77-2026-07-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-decision-apr-jul-window-polymarket-77-2026-07-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}