{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260703VS02",
  "record_slug": "fed-rate-hike-by-july-2026-meeting-vol-82314",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-03T10:32:42+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Heavy flows defend an 8% Fed hike probability into July",
  "telemetry": "8% · $82K 24h",
  "headline": "Fed July hike: 8% on $82K fresh volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-by",
  "event_question": "Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xac550c316d635e7f2dc810de6d6afd531e254b3c9c7d56d32d14337e7c3979e4",
    "question_raw": "Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.083,
    "volume_24h_usd": 82314.101735,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 184782.08501999988,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices an 8% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, a slim but non-trivial tail.",
    "24h volume of $82K is 45% of all-time contract volume, indicating a material re-engagement with this hawkish scenario.",
    "With the July meeting imminent, fresh capital at 8% likely reflects traders hedging against a surprise hawkish pivot on inflation data.",
    "Resolution at July 2026 FOMC; any CPI or labor print before the meeting could rapidly reprice this contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 82314.101735
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-rate-hike-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-03T10:32:42+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-by-july-2026-meeting-vol-82314/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-by-july-2026-meeting-vol-82314.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}