{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081703",
  "record_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-49-2026-08-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Odds on a Fed rate hike in 2026 sit near 50%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 49%",
  "headline": "Fed rate hike in 2026: Polymarket 49%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x80b3af88cb991980e8da1ce86b9794a0957f96ec98c29319dd7ba65e9744d82b",
    "question_raw": "Fed rate hike in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.49,
    "volume_24h_usd": 41215.328355,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Fed rate hike in 2026 at 49%, essentially a coin flip and broadly consistent with fading tightening bets.",
    "Dollar weakness and reduced hike bets in the news align with the near-50% pricing, markets are not calling a clear direction.",
    "The Kalshi ladder on the federal funds upper bound implies a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with only 21% above 4.00%, lean toward no additional hike.",
    "Kalshi contract on a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year sits at just 5%, ruling out aggressive easing as the base case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Vassilis Karamanis",
          "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/dollar-extends-slide-as-traders-scale-back-fed-tightening-bets",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-20T08:32:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Traders are scaling back Fed tightening bets as the dollar extends its slide and rate hike expectations diminish.",
      "publisher": "Vassilis Karamanis",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/dollar-extends-slide-as-traders-scale-back-fed-tightening-bets"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 49% reading signals genuine two-way uncertainty, not a directional consensus."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Vassilis Karamanis: (USD) Dollar Extends Slide as Traders Scale Back Fed Tightening Bets -",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/dollar-extends-slide-as-traders-scale-back-fed-tightening-bets",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-20T08:32:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-49-2026-08-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-49-2026-08-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}