{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082802",
  "record_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-66-2026-08-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Markets put two-in-three odds on a 2026 Fed rate hike",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 66%",
  "headline": "Fed rate hike in 2026: Polymarket 66%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x80b3af88cb991980e8da1ce86b9794a0957f96ec98c29319dd7ba65e9744d82b",
    "question_raw": "Fed rate hike in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.66,
    "volume_24h_usd": 78421.99113600001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices a 2026 Fed rate hike at 66%, reflecting majority-but-not-certain consensus.",
    "Warsh's explicit hike signaling is consistent with the 66% pricing, though markets are not treating a hike as a done deal.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on rate hikes sits at 68%, showing tight cross-venue agreement and no meaningful arbitrage gap.",
    "Both contracts resolve via official Federal Reserve rate decisions; a September hike announcement would likely push both toward full pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Christopher Rugaber, Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2026/08/28/fed-chair-warsh-signals-rate-hikes-may-be-needed-with-inflation-stubbornly-elevated/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled at Jackson Hole that rate hikes may be needed if inflation remains stubbornly elevated.",
      "publisher": "Christopher Rugaber, Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2026/08/28/fed-chair-warsh-signals-rate-hikes-may-be-needed-with-inflation-stubbornly-elevated/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 66% and Kalshi at 68% are in close agreement, reflecting that Warsh's hawkish tone is priced in but not yet treated as certain."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Christopher Rugaber, Associated Press: Fed Chair Warsh signals rate hikes may be needed with inflation stubbo",
      "url": "https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2026/08/28/fed-chair-warsh-signals-rate-hikes-may-be-needed-with-inflation-stubbornly-elevated/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-66-2026-08-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-66-2026-08-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}