{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090703",
  "record_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-72-after-blowout-jobs-print-2026-09-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Odds on a Fed hike in 2026 hold near 75 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 72%",
  "headline": "Fed rate hike in 2026: Polymarket 72% after blowout jobs print",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-11",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x80b3af88cb991980e8da1ce86b9794a0957f96ec98c29319dd7ba65e9744d82b",
    "question_raw": "Fed rate hike in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.72,
    "volume_24h_usd": 43459.19598099999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on the Fed raising its benchmark rate in 2026 sits at 72%, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Siegel's argument that a hike is economically warranted is broadly consistent with the 72% pricing, though the contract is not at near-certainty, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the political timing he cited.",
    "August payrolls came in at 162,000, roughly triple the 53,000 consensus, adding fuel to the hawkish case but the market has not moved to price near-certainty of a hike.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on the multi-deadline hike series also sits at 76%, a tight cross-venue read suggesting little divergence in the base-case probability."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "pbs.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-keeps-heralding-an-economic-boom-but-even-a-solid-jobs-report-is-causing-problems-for-him",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Wharton's Professor Jeremy Siegel argued that only midterm-election political constraints are stopping the Federal Reserve from hiking rates after August's blowout 162,000 jobs report.",
      "publisher": "pbs.org",
      "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-keeps-heralding-an-economic-boom-but-even-a-solid-jobs-report-is-causing-problems-for-him"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on whether the Fed raises its benchmark rate at any point in 2026; the 72% read is consistent across both Polymarket and Kalshi."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "pbs.org: Trump keeps heralding an economic boom, but even a solid jobs report i",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-keeps-heralding-an-economic-boom-but-even-a-solid-jobs-report-is-causing-problems-for-him",
      "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-72-after-blowout-jobs-print-2026-09-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-in-2026-polymarket-72-after-blowout-jobs-print-2026-09-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}