{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080404",
  "record_slug": "fed-rate-hike-multi-deadline-kalshi-64-2026-08-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed rate hike odds hold above 50% despite mixed labor data",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 64%",
  "headline": "Fed rate hike (multi-deadline): Kalshi 64%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42",
  "target_event_slug": "fedhike",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? (multi-deadline series, 2026-2028)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "FEDHIKE-26DEC31",
    "question_raw": "Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.64,
    "volume_24h_usd": 28706.12,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi multi-deadline series prices a Fed rate hike at 64%, holding above the 50% threshold despite softer job openings data.",
    "Falling job openings are a mild disinflationary signal, but the market is not moving away from a hike majority, resilient hiring and low layoffs offset the headline decline.",
    "The labor market data alone does not resolve the rate question; the pricing reflects a balance of sticky inflation (ISM prices elevated) against modest labor softening.",
    "Resolution is via the Federal Reserve's actual policy decision; the multi-deadline structure means the contract covers any hike through 2028, giving it a longer runway than a single-meeting market."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thomson Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://wimz.com/2026/08/04/declining-imports-compress-us-trade-deficit-in-june/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T10:30:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US job openings dropped to 7.4 million in June, led by the largest healthcare vacancy decline in 11 months, while the broader labor market remained resilient.",
      "publisher": "Thomson Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://wimz.com/2026/08/04/declining-imports-compress-us-trade-deficit-in-june/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 64% covers a multi-year window; Polymarket's single-year 2026 contract (CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4) at 62% suggests the bulk of the hike probability is front-loaded to 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thomson Reuters: US job openings fall as healthcare vacancies post largest drop in 11 m",
      "url": "https://wimz.com/2026/08/04/declining-imports-compress-us-trade-deficit-in-june/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T10:30:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-multi-deadline-kalshi-64-2026-08-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-hike-multi-deadline-kalshi-64-2026-08-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}