{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081203",
  "record_slug": "fed-rate-move-june-sept-window-polymarket-35-2026-08-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed action between June and September stays below 50% odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 35%",
  "headline": "Fed rate move June-Sept window: Polymarket 35%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4G3H125S53",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-decisions-jun-sep",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision regarding interest rates between June and September?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x1b56e46dba9e7b2bf93db18e7a79de3f97037314a46f8ebc93b541ae5f396200",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?",
    "current_price": 0.35,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5918.769063,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 35% on the Fed making a rate decision between June and September, implying a hold is the majority expectation for that window.",
    "Headline and core CPI rising in line with expectations reduces urgency to act; the market pricing is consistent with the 'Fed on hold' narrative dominating coverage.",
    "Atlanta Fed interim President Cheryl Venable's hawkish commentary on inflation being too high has not pushed this contract above 50%, suggesting the market is not fully endorsing her posture.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle based on an official Federal Reserve announcement of a rate change within the specified window."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "koreatimes.co.kr",
          "source_url": "https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260813/fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-13T09:07:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "After soft July CPI came in as expected, analysts and officials increasingly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting.",
      "publisher": "koreatimes.co.kr",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260813/fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 35% implies the hold camp leads comfortably; volume spike of 9,733% day-over-day on related CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470 signals sharply rising attention on Fed rate action contracts."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "koreatimes.co.kr: Fed expected to leave rates unchanged next month after soft inflation",
      "url": "https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260813/fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-13T09:07:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-move-june-sept-window-polymarket-35-2026-08-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-rate-move-june-sept-window-polymarket-35-2026-08-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}