{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101605",
  "record_slug": "fl-25-house-seat-won-by-dems-kalshi-81-vol-surge-2026-10-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats winning Florida 25th House seat stays favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 81%",
  "headline": "FL-25 House seat won by Dems: Kalshi 81%, vol surge",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-Q8F4815M66",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhouserace-fl25-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Florida 25th House seat be won in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSERACE-FL25-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democratic win the House race for FL-25?",
    "current_price": 0.81,
    "volume_24h_usd": 661.19,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T17:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 81% on Democrats winning Florida's 25th congressional district House seat, a heavily favored position.",
    "Trading volume on this contract surged 27,119% day over day, a 272x increase, signaling a sharp influx of fresh attention to this race.",
    "The volume spike alongside an 81% Democratic probability is consistent with the AP reporting of Republicans pulling resources from front-line districts.",
    "Resolves via Library of Congress; the FL-09 House seat on Kalshi (CM-EVT-DZ1HCD1GF9) sits at 71% for Democrats, reinforcing a broad Florida trend in the prediction markets."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Nancy Cook",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/16/trump-aides-brace-white-house-turmoil-midterm-losses-loom/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T12:59:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "GOP strategy is shifting as Republicans retreat from front-line districts, with Trump aides bracing for midterm losses.",
      "publisher": "Nancy Cook",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/16/trump-aides-brace-white-house-turmoil-midterm-losses-loom/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract; the 272x volume surge is the single strongest activity signal in this batch and is the key market read on GOP retreat news."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Nancy Cook: Trump aides brace for White House turmoil as midterm losses loom - The",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/16/trump-aides-brace-white-house-turmoil-midterm-losses-loom/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T12:59:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fl-25-house-seat-won-by-dems-kalshi-81-vol-surge-2026-10-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fl-25-house-seat-won-by-dems-kalshi-81-vol-surge-2026-10-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}