{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092606",
  "record_slug": "fl-27-house-seat-kalshi-62-republican-volume-up-47x-2026-09-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "FL-27 House race near 50%, drawing surge in fresh attention",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 62%",
  "headline": "FL-27 House seat: Kalshi 62% Republican, volume up 47x",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RTW7ZKGKR3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhouserace-fl27-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican or Democratic candidate win the FL-27 House seat in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSERACE-FL27-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republican win the House race for FL-27?",
    "current_price": 0.62,
    "volume_24h_usd": 91.03,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T17:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the Republican candidate winning FL-27 at 62%, with trading volume up 4,616% day over day, 47 times the prior session.",
    "Trump's record-low pre-midterm approval is drawing market attention to competitive seats like FL-27, where Republican odds sit only modestly above a coin flip.",
    "The volume surge signals the FL-27 contract is attracting significant fresh positioning, likely as traders reassess GOP exposure given the polling backdrop.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-7RNJ53L5L5) puts 94% on the Democrat winning Massachusetts 2nd, illustrating how partisan polarization is shaping district-level pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "newsweek.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/trump-approval-lowest-president-midterms-wsj-poll-12493499",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump's approval rating has dropped to 37%, the lowest for any president heading into midterms since 1990, raising questions about Republican vulnerability in competitive House districts.",
      "publisher": "newsweek.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/trump-approval-lowest-president-midterms-wsj-poll-12493499"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via Library of Congress official election certification; results may lag election night by days or weeks if a race is contested."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "newsweek.com: Trump Approval Lowest for Any President Pre-Midterms Since 1990: WSJ P",
      "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/trump-approval-lowest-president-midterms-wsj-poll-12493499",
      "published_at": "2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fl-27-house-seat-kalshi-62-republican-volume-up-47x-2026-09-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fl-27-house-seat-kalshi-62-republican-volume-up-47x-2026-09-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}