{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110302",
  "record_slug": "fl-house-district-7-republican-win-polymarket-67-2026-11-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republican favored in Florida House District 7",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 67%",
  "headline": "FL House District 7 Republican win: Polymarket 67%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XFQ74FBSZ1",
  "target_event_slug": "fl-07-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will a Republican win the Florida House District 7 election in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x1ca38119fa2b6100d7ed51b5cd6b6ee77148ea41504bb975bfe6e531f07f51dd",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.67,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4593.656605,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Republican win in Florida House District 7 at 67% as polls open.",
    "Trading volume surged 5,678% day-over-day, signaling sharp fresh attention on this specific district race.",
    "The 67% read places this seat as leaning but genuinely contested, not a lock for either party.",
    "Florida's 16th district Polymarket contract sits at just 26% for Republicans, revealing split market views across Florida seats on the same ballot."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Nadja Lovadinov",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/newsletter/morning-wire/november-3-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T15:45:44+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "AP News Election Day coverage highlights Florida congressional races as part of the broader midterm battle for House control.",
      "publisher": "Nadja Lovadinov",
      "published_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/newsletter/morning-wire/november-3-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on certified Florida election results."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Nadja Lovadinov: What to watch in Tuesday’s midterm election, US strikes Iranian target",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/newsletter/morning-wire/november-3-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T15:45:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fl-house-district-7-republican-win-polymarket-67-2026-11-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fl-house-district-7-republican-win-polymarket-67-2026-11-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}