{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071604",
  "record_slug": "future-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Later-meeting Fed funds range anchors near 3.50-3.75 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Future Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Future Fed funds upper bound (post-June meeting)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.28,
    "volume_24h_usd": 39.35,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 95% above 3.50% and only 28% above 3.75%, placing the market-implied Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range for this later horizon.",
    "Resilient ex-gas retail spending supports the view that the economy does not need emergency rate relief, consistent with the market holding above 3.50%.",
    "The 28% probability above 3.75% is notably wider than the near-term June contract (6% above 3.75%), suggesting some residual uncertainty about whether tightening resumes later.",
    "Comparing this ladder to the June meeting ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5, 6% above 3.75%) reveals a modest term-structure premium for the later horizon."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AOL",
          "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-19T09:48:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Lower gasoline prices restrained June retail sales to a 0.2% gain, but ex-gas spending was resilient, prompting economists to upgrade Q2 GDP estimates.",
      "publisher": "AOL",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract; the distribution is broader than the June meeting contract, reflecting greater uncertainty at the longer horizon."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AOL: Lower gasoline prices restrain US retail sales, underlying momentum re",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-19T09:48:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/future-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/future-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}