{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092707",
  "record_slug": "fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "ICE removals in FY2026 seen near 400K-450K, well above floor",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "FY2026 ICE removals implied 400K-450K: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F0MWBBP842",
  "target_event_slug": "kxdeportations-27jan01",
  "event_question": "FY2026 ICE removals total",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T450000",
    "question_raw": "Will the number of ICE removals be above 450000 in FY2026?",
    "current_price": 0.16,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4.92,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
    "resolves_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices ICE removals in the 400K-450K range: 96% above 400K, collapsing to 16% above 450K and only 5% above 500K.",
    "Senator Jim Banks's legislative push to lock in enforcement levels is consistent with a market that sees removals running well above historical norms but plateauing near 400K-450K.",
    "The sharp drop from 96% to 16% between the 400K and 450K strikes implies the market sees the current pace as near its ceiling absent new statutory authority.",
    "Resolution is via FY2026 official ICE removal data; fiscal year ends September 30, 2026, meaning the final figure is imminent."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "foxnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/massive-ice-sweep-fuels-gop-push-lock-trump-immigration-crackdown-law",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Senator Jim Banks is pushing to codify Trump's immigration enforcement into statute, warning executive-only enforcement could be reversed by a future administration.",
      "publisher": "foxnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/massive-ice-sweep-fuels-gop-push-lock-trump-immigration-crackdown-law"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolution source is unspecified beyond FY2026 ICE data; the fiscal year close on September 30 makes this a near-term settlement event."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "foxnews.com: Sen. Jim Banks pushes to codify Trump immigration crackdown into law |",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/massive-ice-sweep-fuels-gop-push-lock-trump-immigration-crackdown-law",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}