{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102908",
  "record_slug": "fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-ladder-2026-10-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "ICE removals in FY2026 seen above 400,000 but below 500,000",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "FY2026 ICE removals implied 400K-450K: ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F0MWBBP842",
  "target_event_slug": "kxdeportations-27jan01",
  "event_question": "FY2026 ICE removals",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T450000",
    "question_raw": "Will the number of ICE removals be above 450000 in FY2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.96,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
    "resolves_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Prediction market ladder implies FY2026 ICE removals in the 400,000-450,000 range: 94% above 400K but only 45% above 450K.",
    "The 22% probability above 500K shows the market treats a half-million removals as unlikely, even amid the enforcement surge AP documents.",
    "The 98% probability above 300K confirms the market fully prices in a historically high removal year; the debate is only about the upper end of the range.",
    "Resolves via official DHS or ICE fiscal-year statistics; the FY2026 close provides a clean settlement date."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Tim Sullivan, Nicholas Riccardi",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-immigration-politics-ice-democrats-deportations-973ea68bd778fbfd7f38209f65bb351c",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T07:47:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "AP reports Trump's immigration crackdown is generating political backlash ahead of midterms, with voters souring on enforcement policies.",
      "publisher": "Tim Sullivan, Nicholas Riccardi",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-immigration-politics-ice-democrats-deportations-973ea68bd778fbfd7f38209f65bb351c"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder contract; no venue attribution available in the data, but the distribution is internally consistent and anchors the immigration enforcement debate."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Tim Sullivan, Nicholas Riccardi: Immigration crackdowns lose political power as voters sour on Trump's",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-immigration-politics-ice-democrats-deportations-973ea68bd778fbfd7f38209f65bb351c",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T07:47:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-ladder-2026-10-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-ladder-2026-10-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}