{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101504",
  "record_slug": "gas-above-4-60-by-dec-31-2026-ladder-near-50-2026-10-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Gas above $4.60 by year-end holds near 50-50",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Gas above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026: ladder near 50%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxaaagasmax-26dec31",
  "event_question": "US average gas price by Dec 31 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.60",
    "question_raw": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.48,
    "volume_24h_usd": 532.61,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "AAA",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices 52% on gas exceeding $4.60 by year-end, fading to 34% at $4.80 and 24% at $5.00.",
    "Consumer resilience reported in the news is reflected in a near-coin-flip at $4.60, suggesting the market sees fuel prices as elevated but not runaway.",
    "Above $5.00, the ladder assigns only 24% probability, placing a hard ceiling on the market's base scenario for year-end pump prices.",
    "Resolves on a reported national average gas price by December 31, 2026; seasonal demand patterns through Q4 are the swing variable."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Christopher Rugaber",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-consumers-elections-inflation-28ffc9c856377d468a2fb231712806b1",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T07:47:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US consumers are still spending despite persistent inflation, but analysts question how long household budgets can absorb rising fuel and food prices.",
      "publisher": "Christopher Rugaber",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-consumers-elections-inflation-28ffc9c856377d468a2fb231712806b1"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder sits near 50-50 at $4.60, consistent with genuine uncertainty about whether fuel-driven inflation persists into year-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Christopher Rugaber: US consumers are muscling through higher prices, but for how long?",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-consumers-elections-inflation-28ffc9c856377d468a2fb231712806b1",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T07:47:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-above-4-60-by-dec-31-2026-ladder-near-50-2026-10-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-above-4-60-by-dec-31-2026-ladder-near-50-2026-10-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}