{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072003",
  "record_slug": "gas-above-4-60-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-near-48-2026-07-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Gas above $4.60 by year-end fractures below even odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Gas above $4.60 by Dec 31: Kalshi ladder near 48%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxaaagasmax-26dec31",
  "event_question": "National average gas price by Dec 31, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.60",
    "question_raw": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.48,
    "volume_24h_usd": 611.76,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "AAA",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder shows 48% probability gas exceeds $4.60 by year-end, with probabilities declining steadily to 6% above $7.00.",
    "Gas topping $4 now does not yet push the market to favor sustained above-$4.60 pricing by December; the contract sits nearly at even odds.",
    "The $82 WTI print is a live input: further oil price gains would shift the distribution rightward, but the current ladder reflects uncertainty rather than conviction.",
    "Resolution is based on the national average gas price at Dec 31, 2026; seasonal demand and geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz (see Iran wires) are key drivers."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Rich Duprey",
          "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/20/gas-tops-4-again-oil-hits-82-heres-why-the-fed-has-a-big-problem/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-21T10:22:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "National average gas prices topped $4 and WTI crude hit $82, complicating the Fed's inflation outlook.",
      "publisher": "Rich Duprey",
      "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/20/gas-tops-4-again-oil-hits-82-heres-why-the-fed-has-a-big-problem/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder at 48% for $4.60 threshold; the flat-to-declining tail from $4.60 to $7.00 signals the market treats sustained high prices as a tail risk, not a base case."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Rich Duprey: Gas Tops $4 Again, Oil Hits $82. Here's Why the Fed Has a Big Problem",
      "url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/20/gas-tops-4-again-oil-hits-82-heres-why-the-fed-has-a-big-problem/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-21T10:22:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-above-4-60-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-near-48-2026-07-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-above-4-60-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-near-48-2026-07-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}