{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101503",
  "record_slug": "gas-above-4-60-by-dec-31-ladder-implies-near-50-2026-10-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Gas above $4.60 by year-end holds near 50%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Gas above $4.60 by Dec 31: ladder implies near 50%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxaaagasmax-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Average U.S. gas price by Dec 31, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.60",
    "question_raw": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.47,
    "volume_24h_usd": 530.25,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "AAA",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T06:30:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder implies a market-consensus gas price just below $4.60 by year-end, with 47% pricing above that level.",
    "The ladder drops to 34% above $4.80 and 26% above $5.00, suggesting the market sees limited upside beyond the near-term fuel cost surge cited in the Fed Beige Book and consumer spending stories.",
    "The distribution is consistent with consumer stress narratives, a near-coin-flip at $4.60, but does not price a full spike to $5-plus as a base case.",
    "Ground beef on Polymarket (CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6) sits at only 4%, a separate food-cost signal that suggests markets are not broadly pricing a generalized commodity price shock beyond fuel."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Christopher Rugaber",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-consumers-elections-inflation-28ffc9c856377d468a2fb231712806b1",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T12:59:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "U.S. consumers are absorbing higher prices including rising fuel costs, raising questions about how long spending can hold up.",
      "publisher": "Christopher Rugaber",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-consumers-elections-inflation-28ffc9c856377d468a2fb231712806b1"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder event; the $4.60 strike near 50% is the key read; source and resolution mechanics are unspecified in the provided data."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Christopher Rugaber: US consumers are muscling through higher prices, but for how long?",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-consumers-elections-inflation-28ffc9c856377d468a2fb231712806b1",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T12:59:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-above-4-60-by-dec-31-ladder-implies-near-50-2026-10-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-above-4-60-by-dec-31-ladder-implies-near-50-2026-10-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}