{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061207",
  "record_slug": "gas-prices-above-4-60-4-80-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-12T14:32:47.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Gas prices above $4.60 to $4.80 by year-end holds as market midpoint",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Gas prices above $4.60-$4.80 by Dec 31: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxaaagasmax-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Average US gas price by Dec 31 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.80",
    "question_raw": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.35,
    "volume_24h_usd": 6896.57,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "AAA",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T06:45:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices year-end gas above $4.00 at 99% but splits near $4.60-$4.80, implying a market consensus range around those levels.",
    "May CPI's energy-driven spike to 4.2% is consistent with the ladder showing only 35% above $4.80, suggesting markets see the spike as partially but not fully persistent.",
    "The Iran ceasefire and Hormuz reopening provide a potential downside catalyst for gas prices, which the sharp ladder drop above $4.80 may partially reflect.",
    "Resolution is via measured average gas price data by December 31; the specific average methodology and data source determine exact settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "dailyfly.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.dailyfly.com/2026/06/12/inflation-spiked-to-4-2-a-three-year-high-in-may/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May CPI hit 4.2%, a three-year high, driven largely by energy price spikes tied to the Iran war.",
      "publisher": "dailyfly.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T14:32:47.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.dailyfly.com/2026/06/12/inflation-spiked-to-4-2-a-three-year-high-in-may/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's gas price ladder is consistent with an elevated but not extreme energy outlook, pricing in partial ceasefire relief against a backdrop of still-elevated inflation."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "dailyfly.com: Inflation spiked to 4.2%, a three-year high, in May | Dailyfly News",
      "url": "https://www.dailyfly.com/2026/06/12/inflation-spiked-to-4-2-a-three-year-high-in-may/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T14:32:47.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-prices-above-4-60-4-80-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-prices-above-4-60-4-80-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}