{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081704",
  "record_slug": "georgia-governor-race-winner-polymarket-38-2026-08-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Georgia governor race winner odds hold near even",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 38%",
  "headline": "Georgia governor race winner: Polymarket 38%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-L03QNMYNS5",
  "target_event_slug": "georgia-governor-winner-2026",
  "event_question": "Will there be a winner determined in the Georgia Governor Election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x71c05b735300b6087ff5588bcc7e83fecf009293d794f613c63c92ea8a16fb2b",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.38,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2.684209,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket contract on a winner being determined in the Georgia governor election sits at 38%, with trading volume up 1,507% day over day.",
    "The extraordinary volume surge signals the Georgia election security story is drawing significant fresh attention to this contract.",
    "The 38% price likely reflects uncertainty about whether the election result will be officially certified without legal challenge, not the candidate outcome itself.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract on the Michigan governor race going to the Democratic candidate (CM-EVT-GTDLXYMZQ7) sits at 14%, showing Midwest red-state contests are also being priced cautiously."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Caleb Groves",
          "source_url": "https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/08/georgia-passed-on-election-upgrades-a-princeton-researcher-exploited-weaknesses-in-system/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A Princeton researcher used AI to identify how over 2,200 Georgia voters cast ballots in May primaries, exposing ballot secrecy weaknesses that could affect the upcoming general election.",
      "publisher": "Caleb Groves",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/08/georgia-passed-on-election-upgrades-a-princeton-researcher-exploited-weaknesses-in-system/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the resolution question turns on whether a winner is officially determined, making election integrity disputes a direct price driver."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Caleb Groves: Georgia passed on election upgrades. A Princeton researcher exploited",
      "url": "https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/08/georgia-passed-on-election-upgrades-a-princeton-researcher-exploited-weaknesses-in-system/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/georgia-governor-race-winner-polymarket-38-2026-08-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/georgia-governor-race-winner-polymarket-38-2026-08-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}