{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082007",
  "record_slug": "georgia-senate-republican-win-at-polymarket-7-2026-08-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Georgia Senate Republican win remains a heavy long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 7%",
  "headline": "Georgia Senate: Republican win at Polymarket 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-301LWVGPR3",
  "target_event_slug": "georgia-senate-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Georgia Senate election be won by the Republican candidate?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x54e4e816cc5868e2f933c6bbc597e3313bdad382be3ecf7eaa4d8fa5c3f1a1bd",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.068,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3.21,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on the Republican candidate winning the Georgia Senate election sits at 7%.",
    "Focus group data showing voter anxiety about costs and the economy is consistent with the market's heavy lean against the Republican in Georgia.",
    "The Kalshi contract on the Georgia race being decided by January 4, 2027 sits at 92%, so the market expects a result, just not a Republican one.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle for the winner market; the 92% resolution-timing contract resolves via United States Congress certification."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nbcnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/focus-groups-deep-anxiety-economy-drives-undecided-voters-two-key-sena-rcna593115",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Focus groups in Iowa and Georgia show deep economic anxiety driving undecided voters in two key Senate races ahead of midterms.",
      "publisher": "nbcnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/focus-groups-deep-anxiety-economy-drives-undecided-voters-two-key-sena-rcna593115"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices Georgia as a near-certain Democratic hold at 93% implied; Kalshi's 92% on timely resolution confirms the seat is expected to be called before the new Congress."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nbcnews.com: Focus groups: Deep anxiety about the economy drives undecided voters i",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/focus-groups-deep-anxiety-economy-drives-undecided-voters-two-key-sena-rcna593115",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/georgia-senate-republican-win-at-polymarket-7-2026-08-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/georgia-senate-republican-win-at-polymarket-7-2026-08-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}