{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260725DV02",
  "record_slug": "globalfoundries-us-government-stake-k69-p78",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-25T09:43:46+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "US government GlobalFoundries stake trades far apart on the major desks",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 69% vs Polymarket 78%",
  "headline": "US gov stake in GlobalFoundries above 0%? Kalshi 69% vs Polymarket 78%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TDJHRGQTY1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxusacompanystake-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-GFS",
    "question_raw": "Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?",
    "current_price": 0.69,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 17508.46,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x29de69eea09afcb0cde8301eca3e6fcabf826dcb8a8dafacc0d20f3404a735ff",
      "question_raw": "Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?",
      "current_price": 0.784
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a US federal stake in GlobalFoundries at 78%, Kalshi at 69%, a 9pp gap",
    "Polymarket is the higher-priced venue but carries less than a third of Kalshi's cumulative volume ($5K vs $17K)",
    "Kalshi's larger pool may be discounting resolution ambiguity around what constitutes a qualifying stake; Polymarket may be pricing in pending CHIPS Act mechanics",
    "Claim resolves if any federal entity holds above 0% equity in GlobalFoundries at any point before the horizon"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-64E6FFD2DB); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 71.048147,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 631.44
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will any part of the United States federal government take a",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/globalfoundries-us-government-stake-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:43:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/globalfoundries-us-government-stake-k69-p78/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/globalfoundries-us-government-stake-k69-p78.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}