{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101905",
  "record_slug": "gop-controls-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-63-2026-10-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays near 63 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 63%",
  "headline": "GOP controls at least one chamber after midterms: Kalshi 63%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.63,
    "volume_24h_usd": 354580.73,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts 63% odds on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.",
    "WSJ's account of White House turmoil and hot inflation data frames the political headwind, yet the market still favors GOP retention of at least one chamber.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610) puts 52% odds on a Democratic blue tsunami, creating an apparent tension resolved only if Republicans hold the Senate but lose the House.",
    "Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an unusual sourcing choice; traders should confirm the named resolver matches the actual electoral authority before the contract matures."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Damian Paletta",
          "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/after-a-week-of-turmoil-can-the-white-house-lock-it-down-9b890823",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-20T07:47:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Wall Street Journal reports White House turmoil and a difficult economic backdrop as Republicans seek to retain congressional control in the midterms.",
      "publisher": "Damian Paletta",
      "published_at": "2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/after-a-week-of-turmoil-can-the-white-house-lock-it-down-9b890823"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi binary at 63%; the 52% blue-tsunami contract on the same platform creates a near-coin-flip split that reflects genuine uncertainty about which chamber flips."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Damian Paletta: After a Week of Turmoil, Can the White House Lock It Down? | WSJ Polit",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/after-a-week-of-turmoil-can-the-white-house-lock-it-down-9b890823",
      "published_at": "2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-20T07:47:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-controls-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-63-2026-10-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-controls-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-63-2026-10-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}