{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102803",
  "record_slug": "gop-controls-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-63-2026-10-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays above 50 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 63%",
  "headline": "GOP controls at least one chamber after midterms: Kalshi 63%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.63,
    "volume_24h_usd": 600019.19,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices 63% odds that Republicans will control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.",
    "News of Trump crisscrossing the country amid reported GOP midterm woes leaves the market modestly favoring a partial Republican hold, not a sweep or wipeout.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6 puts 74% on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats, suggesting the market sees the gubernatorial map as friendlier to the GOP than the legislative one.",
    "Kalshi contract resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics designation; any chamber split or tie scenario could create resolution complexity."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T15:33:55+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "With midterm Election Day on November 3, early voting is underway and both parties are making final pushes across competitive districts.",
      "publisher": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 63% reflects a modest lean toward Republican retention of at least one chamber, with gubernatorial odds running 11 points higher on a separate contract."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics: Live Updates: 2026 midterm campaigns make final push before Election D",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T15:33:55+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-controls-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-63-2026-10-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-controls-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-63-2026-10-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}