{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100705",
  "record_slug": "gop-controls-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-65-2026-10-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays near 65%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 65%",
  "headline": "GOP controls at least one chamber after midterms: Kalshi 65%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.65,
    "volume_24h_usd": 29987.54,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 65% odds that Republicans will control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.",
    "News that massive GOP spending has not moved polls is at odds with a 65% Republican-control probability; the market has not shifted to reflect Democratic momentum.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63) prices 90% on Democrats winning the House, implying the market sees the Senate as the likely GOP hold.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics-cited source tracking official congressional election outcomes; final certification required."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Isaac Arnsdorf",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/07/half-billion-dollars-gop-spending-does-little-move-polls/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Half a billion dollars in Republican spending has failed to meaningfully move midterm polls, with Democrats expanding their competitive map.",
      "publisher": "Isaac Arnsdorf",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/07/half-billion-dollars-gop-spending-does-little-move-polls/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 65% for GOP holding one chamber alongside 90% for a Democratic House implies a split-Congress base case, which the spending-effectiveness story does not yet dislodge."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Isaac Arnsdorf: Half a billion dollars in GOP spending does little to move polls - The",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/07/half-billion-dollars-gop-spending-does-little-move-polls/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-controls-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-65-2026-10-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-controls-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-65-2026-10-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}