{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091507",
  "record_slug": "gop-controls-at-least-one-congress-chamber-kalshi-51-2026-09-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding a chamber after midterms near 50%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 51%",
  "headline": "GOP controls at least one Congress chamber: Kalshi 51%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.51,
    "volume_24h_usd": 139410.71,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms at 51%, resolving via Bureau of Labor Statistics, effectively a coin flip.",
    "The Supreme Court blocking mail ballot restrictions removes a procedural advantage Republicans sought, consistent with the market sitting near 50% rather than favoring the incumbent party.",
    "Polymarket's Senate control contract (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90) sits at 54% for Republicans and House control (CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15) at 88%, the spread reveals the House is seen as safe while the Senate is the swing.",
    "Resolution uses Bureau of Labor Statistics as the named source, which is atypical for an electoral outcome, readers should note the resolution mechanic as listed."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "theguardian.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/14/supreme-court-rejects-mail-ballot-restrictions",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:05:57+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Supreme Court rejected Trump's proposed mail ballot restrictions for the 2026 midterms, leaving existing voting procedures intact ahead of November.",
      "publisher": "theguardian.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/14/supreme-court-rejects-mail-ballot-restrictions"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 51% on at least one chamber is consistent with Polymarket's bifurcated House/Senate pricing: House heavily favored GOP, Senate near toss-up."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "theguardian.com: Supreme court rejects Trump’s mail ballot restrictions for midterm ele",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/14/supreme-court-rejects-mail-ballot-restrictions",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:05:57+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-controls-at-least-one-congress-chamber-kalshi-51-2026-09-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-controls-at-least-one-congress-chamber-kalshi-51-2026-09-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}