{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092903",
  "record_slug": "gop-controls-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-62-2026-09-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding one chamber stays a slight majority bet",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 62%",
  "headline": "GOP controls one chamber after midterms: Kalshi 62%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.62,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19678.83,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts 62% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.",
    "The trade adviser's threat signals the White House views the midterms as high-stakes, consistent with a competitive environment the market prices at only modest Republican advantage.",
    "At 62%, the market is not pricing a wave in either direction; a near-even race reflects multiple concurrent stories of GOP internal panic and Democratic optimism.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the named source field, though actual resolution will likely be congressional certification; confirm resolution mechanic before trading."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Darren Major    ·  CBC News    ·  Posted: Sep 29, 2026 2:59 PM EDT | Last Updated: 9 minutes ago",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/peter-navarro-canada-interference-elections-lobbyists-9.7362810",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T07:47:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump's trade adviser threatened Canada with steeper tariffs if it interferes in US midterm elections, underlining the high political stakes of the 2026 midterm cycle.",
      "publisher": "Darren Major    ·  CBC News    ·  Posted: Sep 29, 2026 2:59 PM EDT | Last Updated: 9 minutes ago",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/peter-navarro-canada-interference-elections-lobbyists-9.7362810"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 62% reflects a genuine toss-up environment with a slight lean to Republicans retaining at least one chamber."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Darren Major    ·  CBC News    ·  Posted: Sep 29, 2026 2:59 PM EDT | Last Updated: 9 minutes ago: Trump trade adviser says Canada will 'pay even more dearly' if 'you in",
      "url": "https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/peter-navarro-canada-interference-elections-lobbyists-9.7362810",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T07:47:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-controls-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-62-2026-09-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-controls-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-62-2026-09-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}