{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101306",
  "record_slug": "gop-governorship-majority-after-midterms-kalshi-68-2026-10-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats stays favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 68%",
  "headline": "GOP governorship majority after midterms: Kalshi 68%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgovwins-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R-50",
    "question_raw": "Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.68,
    "volume_24h_usd": 159.34,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
    "resolves_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms at 68%.",
    "The bullish Democratic narrative from analysts is not reflected in the pricing; the market continues to favor Republicans despite reported Democratic momentum.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on Michigan's governor race prices at only 4% for a Democratic win, suggesting the market is skeptical of a broad Democratic gubernatorial wave.",
    "Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy -- an atypical resolution source for an electoral question; users should verify settlement details."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Kevin Hardy, stateline.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2026/10/13/democrats-could-win-majority-of-governors-offices-for-first-time-in-16-years/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T07:47:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats are positioned to potentially win a majority of governorships for the first time in 16 years, according to analysts tracking competitive races.",
      "publisher": "Kevin Hardy, stateline.org",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2026/10/13/democrats-could-win-majority-of-governors-offices-for-first-time-in-16-years/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 68% Republican; the market is fading the media narrative of a Democratic gubernatorial surge."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Kevin Hardy, stateline.org: Democrats could win majority of governor’s offices for first time in 1",
      "url": "https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2026/10/13/democrats-could-win-majority-of-governors-offices-for-first-time-in-16-years/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T07:47:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-governorship-majority-after-midterms-kalshi-68-2026-10-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-governorship-majority-after-midterms-kalshi-68-2026-10-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}