{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090604",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-48-2026-09-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-06T13:53:12.012Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding any chamber after midterms near 50-50",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 48%",
  "headline": "GOP holds at least one chamber after midterms: Kalshi 48%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-07",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.48,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4897.97,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Republicans retaining at least one chamber of Congress at 48%, essentially a coin-flip.",
    "Reuters and Guardian reporting flags Trump unpopularity and Democratic momentum, consistent with the sub-50% GOP reading.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-4N4F192YB2) puts an 81% probability on a Democratic blue wave in 2026, a significant cross-venue gap worth monitoring.",
    "Kalshi resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics designation of the official election outcome; the 52% Thune step-down contract (CM-EVT-57VMK4QRS7) adds leadership uncertainty as a side risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Chris Stein",
          "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/06/midterm-elections-control-of-congress",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-07T13:54:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The 2026 midterm campaign enters its final sprint with Congress control uncertain, as warning signs for Republicans accumulate ahead of November.",
      "publisher": "Chris Stein",
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T13:53:12.012Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/06/midterm-elections-control-of-congress"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 48% on GOP chamber control sits in notable tension with Polymarket's 81% blue-wave contract, the cross-venue spread is the defining signal heading into the midterm sprint."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Chris Stein: Game on: November elections kick into high gear with control of Congre",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/06/midterm-elections-control-of-congress",
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T13:53:12.012Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-07T13:54:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-48-2026-09-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-48-2026-09-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}