{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100104",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-62-2026-10-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-01T13:13:24.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays a modest favorite",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 62%",
  "headline": "GOP holds at least one chamber after midterms: Kalshi 62%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.62,
    "volume_24h_usd": 21877.57,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Republicans holding at least one chamber of Congress at 62%, a slim but real majority of probability.",
    "Trump's new low on economic approval and Schumer's public confidence are consistent with a competitive environment, yet the Kalshi contract has not moved to a coin-flip.",
    "A separate Kalshi contract puts Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats at 70%, suggesting the electoral damage is seen as concentrated in federal races.",
    "Resolution source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an unusual resolver for an electoral outcome, traders should verify the settlement mechanic before sizing positions."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ryan Mancini",
          "source_url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6122475-donald-trump-us-economy-approval-low-ap-norc-survey/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T15:03:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump's economic approval rating hit a new low weeks before midterms, with Schumer claiming the Senate is within reach for Democrats.",
      "publisher": "Ryan Mancini",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T13:13:24.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6122475-donald-trump-us-economy-approval-low-ap-norc-survey/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the data provided; the 62% read gives Democrats a meaningful but non-dominant implied path to a sweep."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ryan Mancini: Donald Trump sees economic approval rating dip just weeks before midte",
      "url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6122475-donald-trump-us-economy-approval-low-ap-norc-survey/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T13:13:24.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T15:03:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-62-2026-10-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-at-least-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-62-2026-10-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}