{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100505",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-at-least-one-chamber-kalshi-64-2026-10-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 64%",
  "headline": "GOP holds at least one chamber: Kalshi 64%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.64,
    "volume_24h_usd": 49055.19,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 64% odds on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.",
    "Democratic momentum narratives from Jeffries and tightening Senate polling have not shifted the market to below 50%; Republicans remain favored to hold at least one chamber.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats sits at 68%, slightly higher, suggesting markets see the Senate or House as marginally more competitive than governor races.",
    "Resolution is via Bureau of Labor Statistics -- an unusual noted resolver; the substantive settlement would follow certified election results from congressional races."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "yahoo.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-faces-midterm-verdict-democrats-010046501.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T07:47:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "With one month to the midterms, Democrats are closing in on Republican-held seats as Senate races in Texas and Michigan tighten and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries expressed confidence in a Democratic majority.",
      "publisher": "yahoo.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-faces-midterm-verdict-democrats-010046501.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 64%; Democratic sweep narrative present in news but market holds Republicans as the slight-to-moderate favorite for at least one chamber."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "yahoo.com: Trump faces midterm verdict as Democrats close in on US Congress",
      "url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-faces-midterm-verdict-democrats-010046501.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T07:47:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-at-least-one-chamber-kalshi-64-2026-10-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-at-least-one-chamber-kalshi-64-2026-10-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}