{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101206",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-10-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "GOP chamber control odds hold at 61% despite spending edge",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 61%",
  "headline": "GOP holds chamber after midterms: Kalshi 61%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.61,
    "volume_24h_usd": 32146.4,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 61% odds that Republicans control at least one chamber after the midterms, resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics certified results.",
    "Despite a $400 million GOP spending advantage and Musk's record donations, the market prices only a modest Republican edge rather than a commanding lead.",
    "A separate Kalshi contract on a Democratic blue tsunami in 2026 sits at 48%, implying the market treats a Democratic sweep as roughly an even-money proposition.",
    "The spread between 61% GOP chamber control and 48% blue tsunami probability is internally consistent: Republicans are favored to hold something, but not overwhelmingly."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jill Colvin",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-midterms-republicans-donors-c06efc774a2e7c5d345e0d46641eb510",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T17:17:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Elon Musk has quietly become the largest known donor in the 2026 midterms as Republicans outspend Democrats by $400 million, according to AP and Fox News.",
      "publisher": "Jill Colvin",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-midterms-republicans-donors-c06efc774a2e7c5d345e0d46641eb510"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract on Republican chamber control; the 61% price suggests the spending advantage has not moved the needle to a safe GOP majority."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jill Colvin: Elon Musk quietly becomes biggest known donor in midterm contests as h",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-midterms-republicans-donors-c06efc774a2e7c5d345e0d46641eb510",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T17:17:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-10-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-10-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}