{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100405",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-governorship-edge-post-midterms-kalshi-68-2026-10-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding more governorships after midterms stays favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 68%",
  "headline": "GOP holds governorship edge post-midterms: Kalshi 68%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgovwins-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R-50",
    "question_raw": "Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.68,
    "volume_24h_usd": 74.99,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
    "resolves_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 68% odds that Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the November 3 midterms.",
    "Trump's rally defiance and 'big surprise' rhetoric sits at odds with weak approval polls, but the governor market is not pricing a Democratic wave.",
    "A 68% Republican edge on governorships signals the market expects GOP structural advantages in state-level races to hold despite national headwinds.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-8MYX8LFZ81 (Republican wins Ohio House District 2) sits at just 1%, showing district-level vulnerability even as the statewide governor outlook favors the GOP."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/4/trump-defiant-about-midterm-chances-as-he-rallies-for-republicans-in-ohio",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump rallied in Ohio for Republican candidates, expressing defiance about midterm chances and predicting a 'big surprise' despite difficult polling.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/4/trump-defiant-about-midterm-chances-as-he-rallies-for-republicans-in-ohio"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy per the data; Kalshi at 68% is the only priced candidate for this story."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Trump defiant about midterm chances as he rallies for Republicans in O",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/4/trump-defiant-about-midterm-chances-as-he-rallies-for-republicans-in-ohio",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-governorship-edge-post-midterms-kalshi-68-2026-10-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-governorship-edge-post-midterms-kalshi-68-2026-10-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}