{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026083005",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-more-governorships-post-midterms-kalshi-55-2026-08-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-30T11:29:18.414Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding more governorships after midterms near 50 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 55%",
  "headline": "GOP holds more governorships post-midterms: Kalshi 55%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgovwins-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R-50",
    "question_raw": "Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.55,
    "volume_24h_usd": 39.6,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
    "resolves_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms sits at 55%, a near-coin-flip outcome.",
    "Politico's midterm-nightmare framing for Republicans is consistent with the market pricing no strong GOP advantage in gubernatorial races; trading volume surged 408x day-over-day, a sharp signal of fresh attention on this contract.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) prices at only 47%, suggesting the market broadly prices a challenging midterm environment for the GOP.",
    "Resolution uses the Statistical Review of World Energy as named source, editors should verify this is the correct resolver; a mismatch could create settlement ambiguity."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Politico",
          "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/08/30/republican-party-midterms-trump-01055934",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-30T13:30:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A Politico analysis describes mounting Republican midterm vulnerabilities in states hit hardest by Trump administration policies, with Democrats seeing an opening.",
      "publisher": "Politico",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T11:29:18.414Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/08/30/republican-party-midterms-trump-01055934"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi volume up 408x day-over-day on the governorship contract; near-50% pricing and surging volume signal the midterm vulnerability narrative is actively being traded."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Politico: The Republican Party’s Midterm Nightmare Is Taking Shape",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/08/30/republican-party-midterms-trump-01055934",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T11:29:18.414Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-30T13:30:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-more-governorships-post-midterms-kalshi-55-2026-08-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-more-governorships-post-midterms-kalshi-55-2026-08-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}