{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082708",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-more-governorships-post-midterms-kalshi-57-2026-08-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding more governorships after midterms stays above 50%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 57%",
  "headline": "GOP holds more governorships post-midterms: Kalshi 57%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgovwins-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R-50",
    "question_raw": "Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.57,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10.12,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
    "resolves_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 57% odds on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterms, resolved via the Statistical Review of World Energy.",
    "Internal GOP concern about the convention's effectiveness and weak affordability messaging are headwinds, but the market still leans Republican on governorships.",
    "The 57% gubernatorial read contrasts with the 47% chamber-control probability on Kalshi, suggesting markets see Republicans performing better at the state executive level than in Congress.",
    "Resolution depends on post-election governorship counts, which will reflect both state-by-state results and any runoff outcomes, introducing timing uncertainty."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Adam Cancryn, Kristen Holmes",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/27/politics/trump-midterms-convention-flop",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Republicans privately worry that Trump's midterm convention strategy may underperform as party messaging on affordability fails to resonate with voters.",
      "publisher": "Adam Cancryn, Kristen Holmes",
      "published_at": "2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/27/politics/trump-midterms-convention-flop"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 57% shows a modest GOP edge on governorships even as chamber-control odds slip below 50%, pointing to a split-level midterm picture in current pricing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Adam Cancryn, Kristen Holmes: Republicans worry Trump’s midterms convention will flop | CNN Politics",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/27/politics/trump-midterms-convention-flop",
      "published_at": "2026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-more-governorships-post-midterms-kalshi-57-2026-08-27.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
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