{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102205",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-one-chamber-2026-kalshi-68-2026-10-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republican chamber control after midterms holds below 70 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 68%",
  "headline": "GOP holds one chamber 2026: Kalshi 68%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.68,
    "volume_24h_usd": 239812.1,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market prices Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms at 68%.",
    "Voter focus on cost of living and health care, traditionally mixed-party issues, is consistent with neither a blowout nor a wipeout, supporting a near-70% range.",
    "The blue wave Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2) at 83% sits in tension with 68% GOP chamber control; both resolving YES is logically possible only if definitions overlap.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics as named source, traders should confirm the exact resolution mechanic, as congressional outcomes normally resolve via official certification."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Amber Phillips",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/22/top-issues-midterms/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-23T13:03:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Washington Post identifies cost of living, health care, and AI as the dominant voter issues heading into November midterms, with Republicans defending contested seats.",
      "publisher": "Amber Phillips",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/22/top-issues-midterms/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 68% GOP chamber control versus 83% blue wave on the same platform creates a spread worth monitoring for arbitrage or definitional clarification."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Amber Phillips: The top issues in the midterms  - The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/22/top-issues-midterms/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-23T13:03:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-2026-kalshi-68-2026-10-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-2026-kalshi-68-2026-10-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}