{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091108",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-47-2026-09-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays near 50-50",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 47%",
  "headline": "GOP holds one chamber after midterms: Kalshi 47%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-11",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.47,
    "volume_24h_usd": 38910.05,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 47% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms, effectively a coin flip.",
    "Massive super PAC spending from Trump and Musk allies is the news catalyst, but at 47% the market is not yet pricing it as a decisive Republican advantage.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract prices 57% on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms, suggesting the market sees GOP strength at the state level as more likely than in Congress.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per contract terms; in practice settlement follows certified midterm election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thomson Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://yall1067.com/2026/09/11/trump-and-musk-super-pacs-unleash-millions-to-boost-republicans-in-battleground-races/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-11T12:32:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump and Musk super PACs are unleashing millions of dollars to boost Republicans in battleground races ahead of the 2026 midterms.",
      "publisher": "Thomson Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://yall1067.com/2026/09/11/trump-and-musk-super-pacs-unleash-millions-to-boost-republicans-in-battleground-races/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 47% on chamber control versus 57% on governorship advantage reveals a split market view on where Republican structural strength actually lies."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thomson Reuters: Trump and Musk super PACs unleash millions to boost Republicans in bat",
      "url": "https://yall1067.com/2026/09/11/trump-and-musk-super-pacs-unleash-millions-to-boost-republicans-in-battleground-races/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-11T12:32:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-47-2026-09-11.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}